Sometimes it is the case that you can make educated guesses about information and turn out to be right. But as we've seen, accidentally being accurate isn't the same as being honest. If you're committed to dealing with the people in your life honestly, then presenting educated guesses as fact is dishonest.
If you're in a conversation about a subject for which you're missing information, you don't have to lie or pretend to know what you're talking about to save face or impress anyone. It's more ethical to just admit you haven't informed yourself to the degree you'd like than to pretend to be an authority on a subject for which you are not.
At the very least, if admitting a gap in your knowledge makes you uncomfortable or you are in a situation in which admitting ignorance can cost you professional credibility, you can remain Consistently Honest by softening the "I don't know" by including disclaimers ("My guess would be...") or qualifiers that let the listener know you aren't sure your information is definitely accurate ("It's probably the case that..."). Alternatively, you can promise to find out and get back to the person at a later time ("I'm not sure when their anniversary is - I'll ask them and email you"). You can also defer to an authority ("You can find that statistic in the book...") which can help deflect some of the embarrassment of not knowing the answer by at least acknowledging that you have access to the information somewhere. There are many ways of admitting "I don't know" without making yourself look incompetent; there is never a "need" to lie about partial authority on a subject.
Admitting incomplete knowledge is better than posing as an authority figure.
Misleading someone deliberately into thinking you're absolutely sure of what you're saying is lying. When people ask you for information, the implication is that they want true information. Passing off an educated guess as a fact is lying by omission: you're leaving off the strong possibility that you're wrong. It's not as ethically problematic as a total fabrication, but it's still a misrepresentation of your expertise or authority on the subject.While you may turn out to be accurate in the long run, the integrity of what you're saying suffers if you continually pass off educated guesses as fact.
My point in writing about "I don't know" is to demystify this admission for people. I think a lot of people lie or overstate their assurance about a fact-claim because they're afraid that "I don't know" will damage the listener's respect for their authority. In practice, the opposite is usually true, and the more people become confident in that fact, the less afraid of "I don't know" they usually become.
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